PRINCIPLES OF MODELLING 2

4. Models should be validated prior to implementation.

Some ways to do this:

• retrospective testing against historical data (especially for forecasting models).

• If the model is supposed to represent a class of things, test it against members of a class which was not used in the modeling (e.g., as in regression analysis).

• systematically vary parameters in the model and real system (if possible) and see whether the changes in behavior match.

• construct artificial tests, e.g., enter extreme values and see what happens (zero is always an interesting number to try).

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